The news of the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan outside the United States will be considered a failure similar to that of the Vietnam War, and the vacuum created will be enough for Russia and China to further test the determination of US President Joe Biden and his administration, reports “Financial”. The Times in a column entitled “Russia and China Will Put Biden to the Test of Afghanistan.”
In recent weeks, the Kremlin has deployed more troops to its border with Ukraine than at any time since the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Last week, China sent a record number of warplanes into Taiwan’s airspace. Both countries show the combination of their military power with military rhetoric.
Biden himself has shown a confrontational approach to Russia and China. He had previously called Russian President Vladimir Putin a murderer, and the actions in Xinjiang, China, were called genocide. At the same time, the United States has imposed economic sanctions on both countries.
Although thousands of miles apart, the strategic situation in Asia and Europe is similar. Although the United States has expressed readiness and strong support for Taiwan and Ukraine, they do not enjoy a clear security guarantee. Instead, the United States relies on strategic ambiguity, without firmly promising the two countries that they will defend them if attacked.
– Moscow and Beijing are closely watching how the United States reacts in one situation, to set the stage in the other. “We need greater strategic clarity if Russia declares war on Ukraine, or China against Taiwan,” said Ivo Dalder, a former US ambassador to NATO.
The situation in the United States, Russia and China is a kind of stand-up. On the one hand, there are voices of strategists advising the United States to guarantee Taiwan and NATO to finally allow Ukraine accession to the military alliance. But such a move could also be interpreted as a provocation by Russia and China.
Some Western strategists suggest that Moscow and Beijing may be coordinating their moves to increase pressure on the Biden administration. This is also seen in the increasing number of high-level meetings between the Russian and Chinese governments.
Nevertheless, even the most confident officials in Beijing and Moscow are still aware of the risks posed by a direct confrontation with the United States over Taiwan and Ukraine. Instead, Russia and China are likely to continue to test their resolve by using “gray zone” tactics that border but are not sufficient to provoke and engage in open conflict.